Fixed or Tracker? How to Choose the Right Mortgage in June 2026

If you're coming off a deal right now — or about to remortgage — you're probably staring at a question that has a surprisingly tricky answer this month: do you fix, or go on a tracker?

A couple of years ago the answer felt obvious. Rates were climbing fast and trackers felt like a gamble. Now the landscape looks quite different. The Bank of England base rate has been sitting at 3.75% since May, tracker products are starting to creep below some two-year fixes, and borrowers are genuinely unsure which direction rates are heading next. Let me give you my honest read of the situation.

Where rates actually sit right now

The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026 — that's the fourth consecutive hold, and the MPC voted 7–2 to stay put. As I write this on 26 June, the rate picture looks like this:

• Best two-year tracker: Halifax at 3.96% (variable, tracks the base rate)
• Best five-year tracker: Barclays at 4.35%
• Best two-year fixed (60% LTV): Barclays at 4.39%
• Best five-year fixed (60% LTV): HSBC at 4.43%

So a two-year tracker currently undercuts a two-year fix by around 0.43 percentage points. On a £200,000 mortgage over 25 years, that's a meaningful monthly difference — roughly £50 less per month on the tracker. On the face of it, the tracker looks attractive. But the story doesn't end there.

The case for going on a tracker

Trackers make sense if you believe the base rate is going to fall — and fall reasonably soon. If the Bank of England cuts rates at its next meeting on 30 July, or later in the year, your tracker rate drops automatically. You don't need to remortgage; you just benefit from day one of any cut.

There's also a flexibility argument. Most tracker deals don't carry early repayment charges (ERCs), which means you can move to a fix at any point without penalty. If rates suddenly spike, you can lock in; if they fall further, you stay on the ride down.

For borrowers who are confident they can absorb some payment movement — say, because their income is stable, their mortgage is relatively small against their earnings, or they plan to sell or make a significant overpayment in the next year or two — a tracker can genuinely save money.

The case for fixing

Here's the part that makes the decision less obvious than the headline rates suggest: fixed rates already have future rate cuts baked in. Lenders look at swap rates — essentially what the money markets think interest rates will do — and price their fixed products accordingly. A 4.39% two-year fix from Barclays already reflects the market's expectation that rates will edge lower. You're not "missing out" on cuts by fixing; you're already benefiting from the market's view of them.

Fixing gives you certainty. Your payment stays the same for two or five years, regardless of what the Bank of England does. If you're budgeting carefully — managing childcare costs, a new car on finance, or school fees — knowing your mortgage payment down to the pound has real value.

And remember: two of the nine MPC members voted to raise rates at the June meeting, citing sticky inflation at 2.8%. If energy prices worsen or services inflation proves stubborn, a rate rise — not a cut — is not off the table. A tracker on which rates rise is not a comfortable position.

What the MPC vote should tell you

The 7–2 split is worth reading carefully. This was not a committee leaning heavily towards cuts. The two dissenting members wanted a hike to 4%. The majority voted to hold, but the Bank's language was cautious: inflation is expected to tick above 3% in the second half of this year before eventually falling back. The Bank is data-dependent, and the data right now is mixed.

The next decision is 30 July 2026. Markets currently lean slightly towards another hold, with any cut more likely later in the year if inflation cooperates. But there is genuine two-way risk here — and anyone telling you they know for certain which way rates are heading is not being straight with you.

My honest take

For most borrowers, I'd lean towards a fix — particularly a two-year fix at this point in the cycle. The certainty has real value, the rate gap between a two-year fix and a two-year tracker is narrower than it looks once you factor in potential rate movements, and the downside risk of rates rising is asymmetric: it hurts more if they go up than the savings are worth if they fall.

That said, if your mortgage is small relative to your income, you have no ERCs to worry about on your current deal, and you're genuinely comfortable seeing your payment move by £50–£100 a month, a tracker with the freedom to switch at any point might suit you well.

The right answer always depends on your personal circumstances — your income, your outgoings, how long you plan to stay, and quite simply how much uncertainty you can live with. That's exactly what a conversation with me is designed to work out. If your deal is ending in the next few months, don't wait. The best rates move quickly, and getting your options in front of you early puts you in a far stronger position.

Kindest regards

Ian

Ian A Moore CeMAP — Director, IM Mortgage Consultancy Limited

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage. IM Mortgage Consultancy Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This article is for general information only and does not constitute mortgage advice; rates and figures quoted were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change.