Fixed Deal Ending Soon? Why Locking In Now Beats Waiting

Another Thursday, another hold. The Bank of England kept the base rate at 3.75% this week, and if you only glanced at the headline you'd think nothing had changed. Look at how the vote actually split, though, and the picture is different: three of the nine committee members wanted to raise it to 4%. That's the tightest split we've seen in a while, and it landed in the same week that average five-year fixed rates hit their highest level since November 2023. I don't think this is a week to shrug and carry on. I think it's a week to talk about timing.

A Closer Vote Than It Looks

At its meeting on 16 September, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. The three dissenters wanted an immediate rise. Part of the reason is inflation: CPI rose to 3.1% in August and is expected to climb further over the coming quarters, with the conflict in the Middle East pushing crude and energy prices higher and adding cost pressure the Committee can't ignore. The next decision lands on 5 November, and after a split this close, I wouldn't bank on another quiet hold.

Fixed Rates Are Already Pricing In More

Here's the bit that catches people out: lenders don't wait for the base rate to move before they reprice. They price fixed deals off swap rates, essentially what it costs them to borrow the money for two or five years in advance. Five-year swaps have just hit a three-year high, and it's showing up directly in what's on offer: the average five-year fixed has climbed from 4.94% to 5.91% since early March. So even in a month where the base rate itself doesn't move, the deal you're quoted today can be meaningfully worse than the one you'd have been quoted a few weeks ago.

Why I'm Telling Clients to Lock In Early

If your current fixed deal ends anywhere in the next six to nine months, this is the practical bit worth knowing: most lenders will let you reserve your new rate well before your existing deal actually ends, often up to six months ahead. The reservation itself typically costs you nothing, and here's the part people don't realise, in most cases you're not locked into that number if something better comes along. If rates drop before your completion date, you can usually switch to the cheaper deal. If they carry on climbing, as they have done most weeks this month, you're already protected at the rate you booked. It's genuinely one of the few free options in mortgage planning, and in a market moving like this one, it's an option worth using.

How a Rate Reservation Actually Works

1. Check the exact end date of your current fixed or tracker deal, not the date you think it is, the date on your original offer.
2. Get a like-for-like agreement in principle or product transfer quote from your existing lender as a baseline.
3. Compare that against the wider market, sometimes staying put costs more than it looks once you factor in a better rate elsewhere.
4. Reserve the best rate you can find now, most offers stay valid for three to six months.
5. Keep an eye on the market between now and completion, and switch only if something genuinely better appears.

What I'd Do If Your Deal Ends in the Next Year

With a Committee this evenly split and inflation heading the wrong way, I wouldn't assume rates are about to fall back. If your deal ends before next autumn, it's worth getting your numbers checked now rather than waiting for a renewal letter to land on the mat. It costs nothing to look, and given how much fixed pricing has moved just since March, a few weeks either way can be the difference between a comfortable rate and an uncomfortable one. Get in touch and I'll talk you through what's actually available for your situation.

Kindest regards

Ian

Ian A Moore CeMAP — Director, IM Mortgage Consultancy Limited

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage. IM Mortgage Consultancy Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This article is for general information only and does not constitute mortgage advice; rates and figures quoted were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change.